So the other day I read this article in Fortune magazine about how home prices on the market everywhere are getting slashed, implying that the housing market is likely going to take a bit of a dip or potentially even crash. It’s one of several articles I’ve read like this recently.
The thing that has been frustrating about these articles is that real estate market conditions are incredibly localized and can change drastically from market to market. I’ve heard from plenty of clients who are reading these headlines and anticipate a big dip in pricing. While I don’t want to say that the market WON’T dip (because nobody knows the future), I did want to provide some local stats to show you what has been going on, locally, and compare that to the last 3 years, including the year PRIOR to Covid, taking that variable out of the equation.
The stats I pulled are from Boston, Brookline, Cambridge and Somerville, both condos and single family homes, from 8/7 to 9/7. You’ll see that while this year has seen the largest % drop in prices for active listings, at an avg. 5.19%, it’s not completely out of the norm. Both 2019 and 2020 (pre and post covid years) saw price drops avg over 4% across the board for this time period. AND 2019 and 2020 actually had MORE price reductions in total than 2022 for this time period. Of the last 4 years, last year only had less price reductions than our current market.
Lastly, it’s important to note that the average home sold the last 30 days was $1,021,778, up 7.4% from this time period last year, which is the biggest leap for end of summer in the last 4 years. That 5.19% avg. price reduction doesn’t look too terrible now…
So what does this all mean? Can buyers get a deal out there? Totally, no question, we’re seeing it happen every day. However, are prices still moving in a positive direction overall, in the big picture? Yes. And while I don’t know the future, I’d predict overall pricing to still incline, even if it’s ever so slightly, year over year. And if the market takes a hit, I’d anticipate the hit to reflect more in the NUMBER of homes sold, not the prices they are selling for. I would predict the market to simply stall out for a bit as everyone goes to the sidelines.
Always always always make sure to chat with your local real estate advisor to get the real time data, local to your market.
Just my 2 cents,
Sam